Telecom operators of all countries are vying to announce the trial tests of equipment and networks of 5G technology, competing in the data rates they have achieved. As a rule, 5 Gb / s is indicated as the highest bar in this competition, but this is in conditions of a small number of simultaneously connected 5G subscribers and with other indicators of network functioning, which are usually unrealistic in “harsh practice.”
So, most likely, the first happy owners of smartphones with support for 5G technology will be given a cold shower: download speeds for heavy video files and streaming video will be much lower than advertised today. Experts at DIGITIMES Research (a research arm of the Taiwanese company DIGITIMES Inc.) predict that dreams of unlocking the possibilities of 5G technology soon “are guaranteed not to come true”! According to their calculations, less than 1/5 of the total world number of new models of mobile devices will be able to work in 5G networks by 2022.
Experts say that the main reason for this coming “mobile inequality” is that none of today’s vendors will be able to release a 5G modem that is truly affordable for most smartphones. That is, only “top” mobile devices will receive support for 5G technology, and they, of course, will only go to people with high incomes and fans who are ready to sacrifice all the blessings of life (or go into debt) for the sake of owning 5G devices. Of course, 5G modems will fall in price over time, but they will become generally available no earlier than 5 years from the moment the first 5G smartphones went on sale, which are “unaffordable” for average citizens.
Everyone should understand that “to join the 5G club” you will have to buy a device that supports next generation technology. But let’s remember how it happened with the spread of 4G technology. Smartphones with its support went on sale before 4G networks became fully functional, as a result of which the owners of 4G smartphones were unhappy with the services they received. With the introduction of 5G technology, the situation promises to “be reversed”: smartphone manufacturers will start releasing models with 5G support only after the corresponding networks “gain strength.” This means that at first, mobile operators will work “at a loss”, which will lead to a delay in the transition from generation to generation.
5G technology will provide higher transmission rates mainly through the development of the millimeter wavelength range, which is characterized by short ranges. That is, operators will have to build significantly more base stations (albeit not expensive ones) than when mastering 4G technology, using the decimeter and centimeter wavelength ranges. The construction of a large number of base stations, obviously, is economically
feasible only in densely populated areas and megacities. And in a sparsely populated rural area, none of the operators will dare to build a “dense network of stations”, which will bring meager profits and will not pay off by definition. So, when talking about the “progress” in the field of mobile communications, which will be provided by 5G technology, you need to understand that there will be progress, but it will be only for “selected categories” (first – by income, and then – by place of residence ) the population of the country.